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The Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined in February to 132.23, compared with 133.02 in January, as nine of 10 categories fell from the previous month, the Center for Business and Economic Research reports.
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Convention attendance dropped 66 percent in December, the month of the data, to 193,095 and gross gaming revenue fell nearly 10 percent to $762.6 million. Commercial building permit valuation was down 17 percent to $133.7 million.

"Still, the one-month modest decline in the index is in line with the general trend of economic expansion since 9/11 (terrorist attacks) and the weakness of 2002," said Keith Schwer, director of the research center at University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

The Southern Nevada index continues to outpace the U.S. index, which has been basically flat since 2004, he said. It has moved upward from a year ago as all categories except gallons of gasoline sold showed increases.

The economic indicators index is a six-month forecast from the month of the data, based on a net-weighted average of 10 series after adjustments for seasonal variation.

The accompanying Review-Journal chart includes several of the index's categories, along with other data such as new residents and employment and housing numbers, updated for the most recent month for which figures are available.

Tourism is setting records and the fundamentals are in place to drive expansion, Schwer said.

Gaming revenue rebounded from the 10 percent drop in December with a 24.4 percent jump in January to $987.7 million, the Nevada Gaming Control Board reported this week.

"You talk about strength in that market, Wynn (Resorts Ltd.'s stock) was up $8 a share earlier this week and Station (Casinos) is up $3.85 this morning," Jeremy Aguero, principal of Applied Analysis, said Thursday. "That's just an illustration of the strength in our main industry, whether it's local or national."

Job growth has been an economic driver for Las Vegas, but that could slow as the housing market cools, said Paul Kasriel, chief economist for Northern Trust Bank in Chicago.

He said a downturn in home sales could lead to layoffs for construction workers, real estate agents, mortgage brokers and other employees affiliated with mortgage capital.

Small-business paychecks rose for the sixth straight month, suggesting that inflation is looming large on the economic horizon, said Michael Alter, president of SurePayroll, a Skokie, Ill.-based firm that processes payrolls for more than 14,000 clients.

He tracked 1 percent year-to-date growth in the number of small business employees in Nevada through February and 0.7 percent growth in average paychecks.

"Small-business salaries are rising from the dead," Alter said. "That's good news for small business employees, but it may not be great news for the overall economy. Inflation is rearing its ugly head and may soon stifle economic growth."

The business activity index for Clark County also experienced a modest decline in December to a seasonally adjusted 187.40, down from 189.04 in November.

"Since month-to-month variation is anticipated, the most recent information suggests only a modest departure from the strong upward trend," Schwer said.

Copyright (c) 2006 Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company.