Lanworth, Inc., a company that uses satellite imagery for agricultural forecasting, estimated this week that the U.S. corn crop will be nearly 2.5% less than the estimate USDA released today.

Lanworth, which is headquartered in Itasca, Illinois, operates a satellite office in Jackson, Mississippi.

USDA calls for a 13.459-billion-bushel crop, while Lanworth puts the number at 13.11 billion. That is nearly a 350,000-million-bushel difference or a 2.6% deviation from USDA’s estimate. Lanworth issued its prediction earlier this week.

In a press release, Lanworth said that differences between its corn estimate and USDA’s estimate are concentrated in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Tennessee and Ohio.

For the soybean crop, the largest differences between Lanworth and USDA estimates are in Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee, the release stated.

Using satellite imagery, soil and weather data, crop growth models and extensive field checks, Lanworth has determined that localized drought conditions and variability in planting dates have limited the yield potential of the corn and soybean crops.

If anything, USDA was more aggressive in bringing down its estimate than Lanworth analysts expected, said Nick Kouchoukos, agricultural analyst for Lanworth.

"We didn't expect them to bring the number down until November, but they are already showing a more conservative estimate," he said."The lower production estimate stems from lowering yield expectations while raising harvested acres."

Before the end of the season, Lanworth expects USDA to reduce its corn production by at least 200 million bushels as problems identified on satellite imagery become evident in the harvest, he added.

"One thing to keep in mind, however, is that the October yield adjustment accounts for only 31% of the final US corn crop, a percentage that will rise upwards of 70% by next month," Kouchoukos said.

Until now, Lanworth's production estimates have been available only through subscription to its agricultural risk management web portal, which delivers detailed weekly acreage, yield and production summaries from national down to county levels.

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